International context, domestic turnover, and foreign policy change in democracies
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| Dependent variable: |
| |
| Change in UNGA Ideal Point |
| Defense Pacts | Rivalries | Capacity | IGO Memberships | Trade | Aid | FDI / GDP |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
|
SOLS Change | 0.181** | 0.143* | 0.186 | 0.026 | 0.032 | 0.218*** | 0.227*** |
| (0.092) | (0.075) | (0.223) | (0.203) | (0.146) | (0.079) | (0.085) |
No. Defenders | -0.009 | | | | | | |
| (0.006) | | | | | | |
No. Rivals | | 0.001 | | | | | |
| | (0.083) | | | | | |
State Capacity | | | 0.317** | | | | |
| | | (0.148) | | | | |
Total IGO Memberships | | | | -0.014*** | | | |
| | | | (0.003) | | | |
Trade (pct. GDP) | | | | | -0.005** | | |
| | | | | (0.002) | | |
Aid (log) | | | | | | -0.002 | |
| | | | | | (0.004) | |
FDI/GDP | | | | | | | -0.0004 |
| | | | | | | (0.007) |
GDP per capita | -0.565*** | -0.564*** | -0.547*** | -0.240** | -0.555*** | -0.572*** | -0.593*** |
| (0.083) | (0.083) | (0.096) | (0.109) | (0.122) | (0.084) | (0.131) |
Population (log) | -0.626*** | -0.696*** | -0.958*** | -0.381** | -0.885*** | -0.669*** | -0.938*** |
| (0.132) | (0.122) | (0.147) | (0.158) | (0.161) | (0.132) | (0.201) |
Cold War End | 0.266*** | 0.262*** | 0.222** | 0.282*** | 0.226** | 0.273*** | 0.236** |
| (0.098) | (0.098) | (0.098) | (0.097) | (0.101) | (0.098) | (0.099) |
US Ally | -0.237 | -0.281** | -0.254* | -0.109 | -0.230 | -0.289** | -0.254 |
| (0.146) | (0.143) | (0.145) | (0.156) | (0.159) | (0.142) | (0.160) |
USSR Ally | 0.432* | 0.433* | 0.053 | 0.162 | 0.355 | 0.425* | 0.424 |
| (0.233) | (0.233) | (0.347) | (0.238) | (0.340) | (0.233) | (0.328) |
SOLS Change No. Defenders | -0.001 | | | | | | |
| (0.005) | | | | | | |
SOLS Change No. Rivals | | 0.043 | | | | | |
| | (0.070) | | | | | |
SOLS Change State Capacity | | | -0.024 | | | | |
| | | (0.206) | | | | |
SOLS Change No. IGOs | | | | 0.002 | | | |
| | | | (0.003) | | | |
SOLS Change Trade (pct. GDP) | | | | | 0.002 | | |
| | | | | (0.002) | | |
SOLS Change Aid | | | | | | -0.009 | |
| | | | | | (0.008) | |
SOLS Change FDI/GDP | | | | | | | -0.012 |
| | | | | | | (0.020) |
|
Observations | 2,707 | 2,707 | 2,434 | 2,578 | 2,219 | 2,707 | 2,138 |
R2 | 0.869 | 0.869 | 0.877 | 0.873 | 0.878 | 0.869 | 0.880 |
Adjusted R2 | 0.863 | 0.862 | 0.870 | 0.866 | 0.871 | 0.863 | 0.874 |
Residual Std. Error | 1.134 | 1.135 | 1.121 | 1.122 | 1.124 | 1.134 | 1.126 |
F Statistic | 139.098*** | 138.954*** | 138.206*** | 141.421*** | 130.539*** | 139.066*** | 128.317*** |
|
*p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 |
Two-tailed tests. Estimated standard errors in parentheses. |
OLS estimates. Country dummies included in all models. |