International context, domestic turnover, and foreign policy change
|
| Dependent variable: |
| |
| Change in UNGA Ideal Point |
| Defense Pacts | Rivalries | Capacity | IGO Memberships | Trade | Aid | FDI / GDP |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
|
SOLS Change | 0.207*** | 0.187*** | 0.113 | 0.363** | 0.147 | 0.248*** | 0.256*** |
| (0.073) | (0.063) | (0.160) | (0.144) | (0.119) | (0.064) | (0.071) |
No. Defenders | -0.013*** | | | | | | |
| (0.004) | | | | | | |
No. Rivals | | 0.038 | | | | | |
| | (0.030) | | | | | |
State Capacity | | | 0.012 | | | | |
| | | (0.069) | | | | |
Total IGO Memberships | | | | -0.016*** | | | |
| | | | (0.002) | | | |
Trade (pct. GDP) | | | | | -0.003*** | | |
| | | | | (0.001) | | |
Aid (log) | | | | | | -0.002 | |
| | | | | | (0.003) | |
FDI/GDP | | | | | | | -0.005 |
| | | | | | | (0.004) |
Democracy | -0.137** | -0.152*** | -0.158*** | -0.066 | -0.090 | -0.149*** | -0.198*** |
| (0.054) | (0.055) | (0.060) | (0.057) | (0.062) | (0.054) | (0.067) |
GDP per capita | -0.245*** | -0.244*** | -0.324*** | -0.048 | -0.295*** | -0.251*** | -0.246*** |
| (0.047) | (0.047) | (0.054) | (0.055) | (0.069) | (0.047) | (0.070) |
Population (log) | -0.440*** | -0.521*** | -0.603*** | 0.031 | -0.706*** | -0.488*** | -0.538*** |
| (0.053) | (0.047) | (0.056) | (0.082) | (0.067) | (0.052) | (0.077) |
Regime Transition | 0.176 | 0.175 | 0.081 | 0.170 | 0.099 | 0.185* | 0.063 |
| (0.108) | (0.108) | (0.115) | (0.112) | (0.117) | (0.108) | (0.122) |
Cold War End | 0.165*** | 0.156** | 0.072 | 0.177*** | 0.135** | 0.165*** | 0.108* |
| (0.062) | (0.062) | (0.064) | (0.062) | (0.067) | (0.062) | (0.065) |
US Ally | -0.091 | -0.184* | -0.261** | 0.019 | -0.270** | -0.192* | -0.251* |
| (0.107) | (0.103) | (0.116) | (0.112) | (0.123) | (0.103) | (0.131) |
USSR Ally | 0.028 | -0.041 | 0.343 | -0.160 | 0.389* | -0.061 | 0.468** |
| (0.132) | (0.131) | (0.275) | (0.132) | (0.214) | (0.131) | (0.229) |
SOLS Change No. Defenders | -0.003 | | | | | | |
| (0.004) | | | | | | |
SOLS Change No. Rivals | | -0.008 | | | | | |
| | (0.049) | | | | | |
SOLS Change State Capacity | | | 0.046 | | | | |
| | | (0.151) | | | | |
SOLS Change No. IGOs | | | | -0.003 | | | |
| | | | (0.003) | | | |
SOLS Change Trade (pct. GDP) | | | | | 0.001 | | |
| | | | | (0.002) | | |
SOLS Change Aid | | | | | | -0.012* | |
| | | | | | (0.006) | |
SOLS Change FDI/GDP | | | | | | | -0.015 |
| | | | | | | (0.015) |
|
Observations | 6,750 | 6,750 | 5,582 | 6,374 | 4,905 | 6,750 | 4,601 |
R2 | 0.846 | 0.846 | 0.857 | 0.849 | 0.860 | 0.846 | 0.864 |
Adjusted R2 | 0.842 | 0.842 | 0.852 | 0.845 | 0.855 | 0.842 | 0.859 |
Residual Std. Error | 1.169 | 1.169 | 1.142 | 1.164 | 1.137 | 1.169 | 1.144 |
F Statistic | 206.343*** | 205.973*** | 194.094*** | 200.567*** | 177.244*** | 206.091*** | 168.282*** |
|
*p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 |
Two-tailed tests. Estimated standard errors in parentheses. |
OLS estimates. Country dummies included in all models. |