International context, domestic turnover, and foreign policy change
Dependent variable:
Change in UNGA Ideal Point
Defense PactsRivalriesCapacityIGO MembershipsTradeAidFDI / GDP
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)
SOLS Change0.207***0.187***0.1130.363**0.1470.248***0.256***
(0.073)(0.063)(0.160)(0.144)(0.119)(0.064)(0.071)
No. Defenders-0.013***
(0.004)
No. Rivals0.038
(0.030)
State Capacity0.012
(0.069)
Total IGO Memberships-0.016***
(0.002)
Trade (pct. GDP)-0.003***
(0.001)
Aid (log)-0.002
(0.003)
FDI/GDP-0.005
(0.004)
Democracy-0.137**-0.152***-0.158***-0.066-0.090-0.149***-0.198***
(0.054)(0.055)(0.060)(0.057)(0.062)(0.054)(0.067)
GDP per capita-0.245***-0.244***-0.324***-0.048-0.295***-0.251***-0.246***
(0.047)(0.047)(0.054)(0.055)(0.069)(0.047)(0.070)
Population (log)-0.440***-0.521***-0.603***0.031-0.706***-0.488***-0.538***
(0.053)(0.047)(0.056)(0.082)(0.067)(0.052)(0.077)
Regime Transition0.1760.1750.0810.1700.0990.185*0.063
(0.108)(0.108)(0.115)(0.112)(0.117)(0.108)(0.122)
Cold War End0.165***0.156**0.0720.177***0.135**0.165***0.108*
(0.062)(0.062)(0.064)(0.062)(0.067)(0.062)(0.065)
US Ally-0.091-0.184*-0.261**0.019-0.270**-0.192*-0.251*
(0.107)(0.103)(0.116)(0.112)(0.123)(0.103)(0.131)
USSR Ally0.028-0.0410.343-0.1600.389*-0.0610.468**
(0.132)(0.131)(0.275)(0.132)(0.214)(0.131)(0.229)
SOLS Change No. Defenders-0.003
(0.004)
SOLS Change No. Rivals-0.008
(0.049)
SOLS Change State Capacity0.046
(0.151)
SOLS Change No. IGOs-0.003
(0.003)
SOLS Change Trade (pct. GDP)0.001
(0.002)
SOLS Change Aid-0.012*
(0.006)
SOLS Change FDI/GDP-0.015
(0.015)
Observations6,7506,7505,5826,3744,9056,7504,601
R20.8460.8460.8570.8490.8600.8460.864
Adjusted R20.8420.8420.8520.8450.8550.8420.859
Residual Std. Error1.1691.1691.1421.1641.1371.1691.144
F Statistic206.343***205.973***194.094***200.567***177.244***206.091***168.282***
*p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
Two-tailed tests. Estimated standard errors in parentheses.
OLS estimates. Country dummies included in all models.