International context, domestic turnover, and foreign policy change in non-democracies
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| Dependent variable: |
| |
| Change in UNGA Ideal Point |
| Defense Pacts | Rivalries | Capacity | IGO Memberships | Trade | Aid | FDI / GDP |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
|
SOLS Change | 0.297*** | 0.320*** | 0.198 | 0.613** | 0.338* | 0.342*** | 0.387*** |
| (0.115) | (0.104) | (0.225) | (0.250) | (0.199) | (0.104) | (0.120) |
No. Defenders | -0.009 | | | | | | |
| (0.006) | | | | | | |
No. Rivals | | 0.067** | | | | | |
| | (0.034) | | | | | |
State Capacity | | | -0.091 | | | | |
| | | (0.082) | | | | |
Total IGO Memberships | | | | -0.009*** | | | |
| | | | (0.003) | | | |
Trade (pct. GDP) | | | | | -0.002* | | |
| | | | | (0.001) | | |
Aid (log) | | | | | | -0.005 | |
| | | | | | (0.003) | |
FDI/GDP | | | | | | | -0.004 |
| | | | | | | (0.005) |
GDP per capita | 0.060 | 0.070 | -0.077 | 0.132* | -0.049 | 0.060 | 0.037 |
| (0.066) | (0.066) | (0.075) | (0.072) | (0.094) | (0.066) | (0.092) |
Population (log) | -0.383*** | -0.434*** | -0.476*** | -0.066 | -0.604*** | -0.376*** | -0.338*** |
| (0.065) | (0.057) | (0.066) | (0.128) | (0.083) | (0.064) | (0.091) |
Cold War End | 0.066 | 0.059 | -0.030 | 0.074 | 0.053 | 0.069 | 0.017 |
| (0.080) | (0.080) | (0.084) | (0.081) | (0.089) | (0.081) | (0.085) |
US Ally | 0.312* | 0.304* | 0.396 | 0.390** | 0.304 | 0.266 | 0.423 |
| (0.184) | (0.182) | (0.241) | (0.194) | (0.256) | (0.181) | (0.319) |
USSR Ally | -0.377 | -0.449 | 0.609 | -0.415 | 0.543 | -0.455 | 0.907 |
| (0.280) | (0.278) | (0.441) | (0.279) | (0.438) | (0.278) | (0.679) |
SOLS Change No. Defenders | -0.003 | | | | | | |
| (0.009) | | | | | | |
SOLS Change No. Rivals | | -0.048 | | | | | |
| | (0.071) | | | | | |
SOLS Change State Capacity | | | 0.029 | | | | |
| | | (0.231) | | | | |
SOLS Change No. IGOs | | | | -0.007 | | | |
| | | | (0.006) | | | |
SOLS Change Trade (pct. GDP) | | | | | -0.001 | | |
| | | | | (0.003) | | |
SOLS Change Aid | | | | | | -0.012 | |
| | | | | | (0.011) | |
SOLS Change FDI/GDP | | | | | | | -0.015 |
| | | | | | | (0.023) |
|
Observations | 4,043 | 4,043 | 3,148 | 3,796 | 2,686 | 4,043 | 2,463 |
R2 | 0.836 | 0.837 | 0.847 | 0.838 | 0.850 | 0.836 | 0.856 |
Adjusted R2 | 0.831 | 0.831 | 0.841 | 0.832 | 0.843 | 0.831 | 0.848 |
Residual Std. Error | 1.175 | 1.174 | 1.143 | 1.178 | 1.131 | 1.175 | 1.141 |
F Statistic | 147.958*** | 148.109*** | 138.153*** | 141.663*** | 120.296*** | 148.047*** | 112.898*** |
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*p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 |
Two-tailed tests. Estimated standard errors in parentheses. |
OLS estimates. Country dummies included in all models. |