International context, domestic turnover, and foreign policy change in non-democracies
Dependent variable:
Change in UNGA Ideal Point
Defense PactsRivalriesCapacityIGO MembershipsTradeAidFDI / GDP
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)
SOLS Change0.297***0.320***0.1980.613**0.338*0.342***0.387***
(0.115)(0.104)(0.225)(0.250)(0.199)(0.104)(0.120)
No. Defenders-0.009
(0.006)
No. Rivals0.067**
(0.034)
State Capacity-0.091
(0.082)
Total IGO Memberships-0.009***
(0.003)
Trade (pct. GDP)-0.002*
(0.001)
Aid (log)-0.005
(0.003)
FDI/GDP-0.004
(0.005)
GDP per capita0.0600.070-0.0770.132*-0.0490.0600.037
(0.066)(0.066)(0.075)(0.072)(0.094)(0.066)(0.092)
Population (log)-0.383***-0.434***-0.476***-0.066-0.604***-0.376***-0.338***
(0.065)(0.057)(0.066)(0.128)(0.083)(0.064)(0.091)
Cold War End0.0660.059-0.0300.0740.0530.0690.017
(0.080)(0.080)(0.084)(0.081)(0.089)(0.081)(0.085)
US Ally0.312*0.304*0.3960.390**0.3040.2660.423
(0.184)(0.182)(0.241)(0.194)(0.256)(0.181)(0.319)
USSR Ally-0.377-0.4490.609-0.4150.543-0.4550.907
(0.280)(0.278)(0.441)(0.279)(0.438)(0.278)(0.679)
SOLS Change No. Defenders-0.003
(0.009)
SOLS Change No. Rivals-0.048
(0.071)
SOLS Change State Capacity0.029
(0.231)
SOLS Change No. IGOs-0.007
(0.006)
SOLS Change Trade (pct. GDP)-0.001
(0.003)
SOLS Change Aid-0.012
(0.011)
SOLS Change FDI/GDP-0.015
(0.023)
Observations4,0434,0433,1483,7962,6864,0432,463
R20.8360.8370.8470.8380.8500.8360.856
Adjusted R20.8310.8310.8410.8320.8430.8310.848
Residual Std. Error1.1751.1741.1431.1781.1311.1751.141
F Statistic147.958***148.109***138.153***141.663***120.296***148.047***112.898***
*p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
Two-tailed tests. Estimated standard errors in parentheses.
OLS estimates. Country dummies included in all models.