International context, domestic turnover, and foreign policy change in democracies
Dependent variable:
Change in UNGA Ideal Point
Defense PactsRivalriesCapacityIGO MembershipsTradeAidFDI / GDP
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)
SOLS Change0.181**0.143*0.1860.0260.0320.218***0.227***
(0.092)(0.075)(0.223)(0.203)(0.146)(0.079)(0.085)
No. Defenders-0.009
(0.006)
No. Rivals0.001
(0.083)
State Capacity0.317**
(0.148)
Total IGO Memberships-0.014***
(0.003)
Trade (pct. GDP)-0.005**
(0.002)
Aid (log)-0.002
(0.004)
FDI/GDP-0.0004
(0.007)
GDP per capita-0.565***-0.564***-0.547***-0.240**-0.555***-0.572***-0.593***
(0.083)(0.083)(0.096)(0.109)(0.122)(0.084)(0.131)
Population (log)-0.626***-0.696***-0.958***-0.381**-0.885***-0.669***-0.938***
(0.132)(0.122)(0.147)(0.158)(0.161)(0.132)(0.201)
Cold War End0.266***0.262***0.222**0.282***0.226**0.273***0.236**
(0.098)(0.098)(0.098)(0.097)(0.101)(0.098)(0.099)
US Ally-0.237-0.281**-0.254*-0.109-0.230-0.289**-0.254
(0.146)(0.143)(0.145)(0.156)(0.159)(0.142)(0.160)
USSR Ally0.432*0.433*0.0530.1620.3550.425*0.424
(0.233)(0.233)(0.347)(0.238)(0.340)(0.233)(0.328)
SOLS Change No. Defenders-0.001
(0.005)
SOLS Change No. Rivals0.043
(0.070)
SOLS Change State Capacity-0.024
(0.206)
SOLS Change No. IGOs0.002
(0.003)
SOLS Change Trade (pct. GDP)0.002
(0.002)
SOLS Change Aid-0.009
(0.008)
SOLS Change FDI/GDP-0.012
(0.020)
Observations2,7072,7072,4342,5782,2192,7072,138
R20.8690.8690.8770.8730.8780.8690.880
Adjusted R20.8630.8620.8700.8660.8710.8630.874
Residual Std. Error1.1341.1351.1211.1221.1241.1341.126
F Statistic139.098***138.954***138.206***141.421***130.539***139.066***128.317***
*p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
Two-tailed tests. Estimated standard errors in parentheses.
OLS estimates. Country dummies included in all models.